?Compare projected North American project-based mass timber demand against manufacturing capacity year by year. Identify the capacity gap and timing for new CLT/GLT factories.
Demand grows at a regional CAGR. Capacity is built from existing factory capacity, European imports and new factories.
The Case buttons load the Conservative, Base, and Progressive presets.North American Mass Timber Demand vs. Manufacturing Capacity
White cells are editable inputs; blue cells are calculated.
North America Demand - Base Case
12| ?RegionCanada and the United States are divided into regions for the demand calculations. Canada East = New Brunswick, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec. Canada West = Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, Saskatchewan, Yukon. US East = Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin. US South = Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia. US West = Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming. |
?Start (m³)Estimated mass timber volume in the start year. Editable — must be ≥ 0. The default values for each CASE SCENARIO are set from the Mass Timber North America Demand Calculator. | ?CAGRCompound annual growth rate for regional demand. Editable input. The default values for each CASE SCENARIO are set from the Mass Timber North America Demand Calculator. | ?+12 Years (m³)The mass timber demand is calculated at +12 years from the start year using the CAGR for each region. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada West | 58,414 | ||
| Canada East | 98,193 | ||
| US West | 243,296 | ||
| US East | 171,992 | ||
| US South | 259,194 | ||
| Total | 264,843 | 10.00 | 831,090 |
Mass Timber Manufacturing Capacity
?Number of production shifts per day used for the capacity calculation. This shifting is applied to existing and new factories in the manufacturing capacity calculations.Shifts per day for capacity calculations
?Efficiency penalty applied when running more than two shifts per day.Production loss for >2 shifts
%
?Annual m³ capacity of all existing factories running two shifts.Current 2 shift capacity
m³
?Annual m³ capacity of a new factory running two shifts. Capacity based on a factory with one CLT press and two GLT presses.New factory 2 shift capacity
m³
?Share of demand met by imported European mass timber, added to capacity each year.European import %
%
?Percent of full production a new factory reaches in its first, second, and third years. Year four onward runs at 100%.New Factory Start-Up
1st Year
%
2nd Year
%
3rd Year
%
?The Case Scenario buttons load preset regional growth rates (CAGR) and new-factory build schedules. Progressive assumes codes in place and mainstream mid-rise mass timber; Conservative is the cautious case; Base is between the two.Case Scenario:
Custom
Base Case
Demand Gap (measured in m³/year)
| Year | ?New FactoriesNumber of new factories starting up that year. Editable — whole number ≥ 0. The model will add factories as required when demand exceeds capacity. |
?Demand (m³)Demand calculations based on start year m³'s and compound annual growth rate (CAGR). |
?Capacity (m³)Capacity includes total N.A. factories plus European imported mass timber. Start-up curve is factored in for added new factory capacity. |
?Demand GapDemand Gap = demand minus manufacturing capacity. A negative result means capacity exceeds demand (an excess of manufacturing capacity). A positive result means demand exceeds capacity. The model will add factories as required when demand exceeds capacity. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start | 264,843 | 343,159 | -78,316 | |
| Year +1 | 291,324 | 345,807 | -54,483 | |
| Year +2 | 320,454 | 348,720 | -28,267 | |
| Year +3 | 352,495 | 351,925 | 571 | |
| Year +4 | 387,741 | 384,727 | 3,014 | |
| Year +5 | 426,511 | 417,881 | 8,630 | |
| Year +6 | 469,157 | 468,153 | 1,004 | |
| Year +7 | 516,067 | 510,487 | 5,581 | |
| Year +8 | 567,668 | 561,654 | 6,014 | |
| Year +9 | 624,429 | 619,612 | 4,817 | |
| Year +10 | 686,865 | 686,501 | 363 | |
| Year +11 | 755,544 | 754,016 | 1,528 | |
| Year +12 | 831,090 | 826,399 | 4,691 | |
| Total | 12 |
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