?Compares projected North American project-based mass timber demand against manufacturing capacity, year by year, to identify the capacity gap and the timing for new CLT/GLT factories. Demand grows at a regional CAGR; capacity is built from existing factories, new factories plus European imported mass timber.North American Mass Timber Demand vs. Manufacturing Capacity
White cells are editable inputs; blue cells are calculated. Demand grows from each region's start-year volume at its CAGR; total demand compounds to the demand-estimate year. Capacity = existing plant output (at the selected shift level) + cumulative new-factory output (ramped on the start-up curve) + an allowance for European imports. The Case buttons load the Conservative, Base, and Progressive presets. Uploaded Aug 06, 2026.
North America Demand - Base Case
Start Year
2036
| Region | ?Start (m³)Estimated mass timber volume in the start year (2024). Editable — must be ≥ 0. | ?CAGRCompound annual growth rate for regional demand. Editable input. | ?2036 (m³)+12 years for demand growth estimate. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada West | 58,414 | ||
| Canada East | 98,193 | ||
| US West | 243,296 | ||
| US East | 171,992 | ||
| US South | 259,194 | ||
| Total | 264,843 | 10.00 | 831,090 |
Mass Timber Manufacturing Capacity
?Number of production shifts per day used for the capacity calculation. This shifting is applied to existing and new factories in the manufacturing capacity calculations.Shifts per day for capacity calculations
?Efficiency penalty applied when running more than two shifts per day.Production loss for >2 shifts
%
?Annual m³ capacity of all existing factories running two shifts.Current 2 shift capacity
m³
?Annual m³ capacity of a new factory running two shifts. Capacity based on a factory with one CLT press and two GLT presses.New factory 2 shift capacity
m³
?Share of demand met by imported European mass timber, added to capacity each year.European import %
%
?Percent of full production a new factory reaches in its first, second, and third years. Year four onward runs at 100%.New Factory Start-Up
1st Year
%
2nd Year
%
3rd Year
%
?The Case Scenario buttons load preset regional growth rates (CAGR) and new-factory build schedules. Progressive assumes codes in place and mainstream mid-rise mass timber; Conservative is the cautious case; Base is between the two.Case Scenario:
Custom
Base Case
Capacity Gap (measured in m³/year)
| Year | ?New FactoriesNumber of new factories starting up that year. Editable — whole number ≥ 0. |
?Demand (m³)Demand calculations based on start year m³'s and compound annual growth rate (CAGR). |
?Capacity (m³)Capacity includes total N.A. factories plus European imported mass timber. Start-up curve is factored in for added new factory capacity. |
?Capacity GapCapacity minus demand. Negative (red) means demand exceeds capacity — a shortfall of mass timber manufacturing capacity. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 264,843 | 343,159 | 78,316 | |
| 2025 | 291,324 | 345,807 | 54,483 | |
| 2026 | 320,454 | 348,720 | 28,267 | |
| 2027 | 352,495 | 366,563 | 14,068 | |
| 2028 | 387,741 | 384,727 | -3,014 | |
| 2029 | 426,511 | 426,246 | -265 | |
| 2030 | 469,157 | 478,609 | 9,452 | |
| 2031 | 516,067 | 514,669 | -1,398 | |
| 2032 | 567,668 | 565,837 | -1,832 | |
| 2033 | 624,429 | 619,612 | -4,817 | |
| 2034 | 686,865 | 686,501 | -363 | |
| 2035 | 755,544 | 768,654 | 13,111 | |
| 2036 | 831,090 | 841,038 | 9,948 | |
| Total | 12 |
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